A Newsweek poll found that 80% of Americans have already decided how they will vote in November. The remaining 20% are undecided and “persuadable.”
I have my doubts. Other pollsters have found that, historically, the number of undecided voters this close to a national election is between 11% and 15%. Even this lower number, however, is difficult to believe in 2024, given the polarization of American politics.
While Newsweek may consider these folks “persuadable,” I think they are less interested and informed and have probably never or seldom voted.
This is not a criticism; some folks have complicated and busy lives with multiple jobs and children or elderly parents to care for. Politics is not on their radar, and getting informed, if they were interested, would take time they don’t have.
Chasing undecided voters may be tempting for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, especially if they believe that 20% of voters are still persuadable. But here is a more fruitful strategy that’s tried and true.
History tells us that the candidate who gets the greater proportion of their registered party voters to the polls will win in November. I think this is especially true for 2024.
In 2016, observers were surprised that Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. After looking at the election data, they were surprised again when they studied Democratic turnout, especially compared to Democratic turnout for the two previous election cycles that elevated Barack Obama to the White House.
Looking back, some pre-election evidence suggests that some Democrats were not excited about Clinton. Fumbling announcements made by the FBI Director, James Comey, about Clinton’s emails immediately before the election took some of the air out of Clinton’s campaign and Democratic voter enthusiasm.
For whatever reasons, many registered Democrats stayed home, Trump’s supporters showed up, and Republican turnout was the key to Trump’s victory.
For Harris to win, Democrats need to be more excited than they were in 2016 with Clinton. Early indicators are encouraging for Harris, as demonstrated by the number of first-time Democratic contributions and volunteers. Many of these voters, who did not plan to get involved with Biden at the top of the ticket, seem to be getting involved with Harris.
Harris’ choice for running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, seems to be adding to the enthusiasm, especially compared to Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance. According to a YouGov survey conducted last week, Walz has a net favorability rating of positive 11. Vance has a net favorability rating of negative nine with a dismal 34% approval rating as measured in a recent Marist poll.
Party turnout has long been associated with presidential victories. In 2004, an equal number (37%) of Democrats and Republicans showed up at the polls. The Republican candidate, George W. Bush, won. In 2008, Democrats were enthusiastic about Obama, and 39% of voters were Democrats, compared to 32% who were Republicans. Obama won.
In the 2016 race between Clinton and Trump, voter turnout was at a 20-year low. Who stayed home? A study by the Pew Research Center found that 55% of the nonvoters were Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Only 41% were Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
For Harris, getting Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to the polls this November is the key to her victory. Unfortunately, some groups who tend to vote for Democrats, especially young voters and minority voters, have poor track records of showing up at the polls. Harris and Walz will need to provide the enthusiasm to get them to the polls.
Also, Harris cannot count on there being more registered Democrats than Republicans nationally, an advantage Democrats had in the past. In 2024, according to Pew Research Center, 49% of registered voters are Democrats, and 48% are Republicans.
Harris may have a small advantage in some Midwestern swing states where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans, although in ever-shrinking numbers.
For example, in Pennsylvania, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State, registered Democrats have a 4% advantage over Republicans. This is significantly less than in 2008, when Democrats had a 12% advantage, and Obama won.
Several variables influence voter turnout for both parties. One variable is a party’s satisfaction with its candidates. In a Times/Siena poll of voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, taken last week, 87% of Democrats responded that they were “satisfied” with their candidates compared to 79% of Republicans.
Another factor influencing turnout is the “ground game” each political party organizes to educate and get its voters to the polls. The number of field offices, paid staff and volunteers per state are indicators of a party’s ground game.
In April, the then-Biden-Harris campaign had 24 field offices in Pennsylvania, for example. The Trump campaign opened its first office in Pennsylvania in June, believing in a different strategy of state rallies and having Trump to energize their voters. This strategy worked for Trump in 2016, not in 2020.
There is a saying that those who show up rule the world. This is certainly going to be the case in November.
Tom Zirpoli is the Laurence J. Adams Distinguished Chair in Special Education Emeritus at McDaniel College. He writes from Westminster. His column appears on Wednesdays. Email him at tzirpoli@mcdaniel.edu.
